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2008 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2008 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2008 2009 2010 June 2009 June 2010 2013
Mean point estimate 3.6 2.6 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 57 57 49 52 43 49
Probability distributions 2008 2009 2010 June 2009 June 2010 2013
<0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.20.3
0.0-0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.70.6
0.5-0.9% 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.8 2.22.7
1.0-1.4% 0.0 1.8 6.0 3.9 8.68.2
1.5-1.9% 0.2 10.1 24.0 15.9 24.831.3
2.0-2.4% 1.3 29.1 43.1 33.4 38.536.7
2.5-2.9% 5.7 37.3 16.4 27.4 16.913.0
3.0-3.4% 26.0 15.4 6.0 13.3 5.95.4
3.5-3.9% 57.0 4.4 1.6 4.0 1.91.4
>4.0% 9.8 1.2 0.3 0.8 0.40.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2008 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2008 2009 2010 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2013
Mean point estimate 1.6 1.3 1.8 0.9 1.7 2.1
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 56 55 46 50 42 47
Probability distributions 2008 2009 2010 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2013
<0.0% 0.1 1.8 0.4 5.0 0.70.6
0.0-0.4% 1.1 5.8 1.5 15.1 2.51.1
0.5-0.9% 5.2 18.4 5.9 31.1 9.73.8
1.0-1.4% 27.6 37.6 19.1 28.2 23.610.2
1.5-1.9% 51.1 26.2 36.0 14.6 32.727.2
2.0-2.4% 13.2 8.4 27.0 5.0 20.535.2
2.5-2.9% 1.5 1.4 8.1 0.8 7.715.5
3.0-3.4% 0.1 0.2 1.6 0.1 2.14.3
3.5-3.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.51.4
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2008 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2008 2009 2010 May 2009 May 2010 2013
Mean point estimate 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 6.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6
Number of replies 56 56 44 48 38 43
Probability distributions 2008 2009 2010 May 2009 May 2010 2013
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.3
5.5-5.9% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.85.5
6.0-6.4% 1.4 2.0 3.6 3.4 5.614.0
6.5-6.9% 15.5 17.5 19.7 13.3 18.827.3
7.0-7.4% 63.2 41.5 37.6 39.0 34.826.8
7.5-7.9% 17.8 29.4 26.3 30.9 25.412.2
8.0-8.4% 1.8 8.0 9.1 10.9 10.97.0
8.5-8.9% 0.2 1.3 2.7 1.9 3.23.8
9.0-9.4% 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.51.6
9.5-9.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.2
10.0-10.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
10.5-10.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0