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2015 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2015 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2015 2016 2017 Dec. 2015 Dec. 2016 2019
Mean point estimate 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.8
Standard deviation 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 58 55 47 48 46 48
Probability distributions 2015 2016 2017 Dec. 2015 Dec. 2016 2019
<-1.0% 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.40.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 7.2 0.7 0.4 2.4 0.70.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 22.5 5.1 1.8 11.3 4.01.0
0.0 to 0.4% 35.2 14.5 6.7 24.4 11.42.7
0.5 to 0.9% 25.4 28.0 16.6 29.1 23.09.6
1.0 to 1.4% 6.1 29.5 26.9 17.4 26.920.6
1.5 to 1.9% 1.5 14.1 27.4 9.4 20.132.7
2.0 to 2.4% 0.4 5.2 12.7 3.0 8.319.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.1 1.9 5.1 1.4 3.68.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.3 1.33.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.41.1
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2015 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2015 2016 2017 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2019
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.7
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 58 55 45 47 43 47
Probability distributions 2015 2016 2017 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2019
<-1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.30.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.50.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 2.5 1.4 1.4 2.5 1.61.4
0.0 to 0.4% 8.6 4.7 4.0 8.3 4.73.7
0.5 to 0.9% 27.1 13.5 10.1 23.1 13.09.0
1.0 to 1.4% 38.9 29.3 22.5 33.8 25.121.3
1.5 to 1.9% 15.8 30.0 33.4 21.2 31.230.7
2.0 to 2.4% 4.2 13.0 17.4 6.9 13.919.4
2.5 to 2.9% 1.1 4.7 6.9 1.9 5.98.8
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 1.7 2.3 0.8 2.33.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.91.1
>4.0% 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.60.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2015 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2015 2016 2017 Nov. 2015 Nov. 2016 2019
Mean point estimate 11.3 10.9 10.3 11.2 10.7 9.4
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.9
Number of replies 53 50 40 42 40 40
Probability distributions 2015 2016 2017 Nov. 2015 Nov. 2016 2019
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.6
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.01.3
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.02.0
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.24.5
8.0 to 8.4% 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.1 0.38.9
8.5 to 8.9% 0.2 1.0 2.8 0.2 1.411.7
9.0 to 9.4% 0.6 2.5 6.4 0.6 3.417.3
9.5 to 9.9% 1.9 4.7 14.2 2.2 9.021.3
10.0 to 10.4% 5.2 14.3 21.4 7.2 18.413.0
10.5 to 10.9% 16.2 26.3 23.6 21.3 23.78.4
11.0 to 11.4% 39.9 27.4 15.2 32.7 20.45.1
11.5 to 11.9% 24.4 13.7 7.1 22.1 13.22.3
12.0 to 12.4% 7.2 6.2 3.9 7.8 6.41.6
12.5 to 12.9% 2.4 2.4 2.2 3.5 2.61.1
13.0 to 13.4% 1.5 0.6 0.4 1.7 0.80.6
13.5 to 13.9% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.20.3
14.0 to 14.4% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.10.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0