Pas disponible en français
Ludger Schuknecht
- 21 August 2012
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1462Details
- Abstract
- This paper revisits the evidence on the monetary policy transmission channels. It extends the existing literature along three lines: i) it takes a global perspective with aggregate series based on a broader set of countries (ca 70% per cent of the global economy) and a longer time (1960-2010) than previous studies. It, thereby, internalises potential international transmission channels (i.e. via global commodity prices); ii) it examines the interaction between monetary variables, asset prices (notably residential property) and inflation; and iii) it looks at the role of public debt for consumer price developments. On the basis of a VAR analysis, the study finds that i) global money demand shocks affect global inflation and also global commodity prices, which in turn impact on inflation; ii) global asset/property price dynamics appear to respond to financing cost shocks, but not to shocks to global money demand. Moreover, positive house price shocks exert a significant influence on inflation. From a global perspective, the study suggests recognition of global externalities of commodities and asset values as well as the close monitoring of real estate price developments.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- 22 September 2011
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 129Details
- Abstract
- The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area is a symptom of policy failures and deficiencies in
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 16 November 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1266Details
- Abstract
- The study looks at primary expenditure developments in the euro area, its three largest members and four “macro-imbalances” countries for the period 1999-2009. It compares actual expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on expenditure rules since the start of EMU. It also calculates the implications for debt trends. It finds that, all sample countries except Germany applied expansionary expenditure policies. This resulted in much higher expenditure and debt paths compared to a counterfactual neutral expenditure stance. Simple and prudent rules-based spending policies could have led to much safer fiscal positions much more in line with the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact rules.
- JEL Code
- E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
H60 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→General
- 5 November 2010
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 121Details
- Abstract
- This paper looks at fiscal sustainability and fiscal risks from a comprehensive, global perspective. It argues that the benefits of consolidation have to be re-assessed given that industrialised countries have entered uncharted waters with unsustainable public debt dynamics and enormous contingent liabilities across sectors and countries coinciding with strong, non-linear and potentially highly adverse fiscal-financial interlinkages. This suggests that there would be significant benefits from fiscal consolidation without delay and that there is a need for caution against excessive faith in fiscal engineering.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 21 June 2010
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 112Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the role of government wages in ensuring macroeconomic stability and competitiveness in the euro area. Recent empirical evidence suggests that government wage expenditure is subject to a pro-cyclical bias in most euro area countries and at the euro area aggregate level. Moreover, the evidence points to a strong positive correlation and co-movement between public and private wages in the short to medium term, both directly and indirectly via the price level, in most euro area countries. In a number of countries this interrelation between public and private wages coincided with strong public wage growth and competitiveness losses. These findings underpin the need for prudent public wage policies supported by strong domestic fiscal frameworks and appropriate wage-setting institutions in order to enhance economic stability and competitiveness in Economic and Monetary Union.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General - Network
- Eurosystem Monetary Transmission Network
- 23 February 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1152Details
- Abstract
- This note looks at US$ and DM/Euro denominated government bond spreads relative to US and German benchmark bonds before and after the start of the current financial crisis. The study finds, first, that bond yield spreads before and during the crisis can largely be explained on the basis of economic principles. Second, markets penalise fiscal imbalances much more strongly after the Lehman default in September 2008 than before. There is also a significant increase in the spread on non-benchmark bonds due to higher general risk aversion, and German bonds obtained a safe-haven investment status similar to that of the US which they did not have before the crisis. These findings underpin the need for achieving sound fiscal positions in good times and complying with the Stability and Growth Pact.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
H74 : Public Economics→State and Local Government, Intergovernmental Relations→State and Local Borrowing
- 21 July 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1071Details
- Abstract
- This study looks at real estate price booms and busts in industrialised countries. It identifies major and persistent deviations from long term trends for 18 countries and estimates the probabilities of their occurrence using a Random Effects Panel Probit model over the period 1980-2007. It finds that 1) most recent housing booms have been very persistent and of a significant magnitude; 2) there appears to be a strong correlation between the persistence and magnitude of booms and subsequent busts; 3) economic costs (in terms of GDP losses during the post-boom phase) depend significantly on the magnitude and duration of the boom and money and credit developments during that period; 4) a number of policy variables, including short term interest rates, local and global money and credit developments, and the incidence of mortgage market deregulation affect significantly the probability of experiencing booms and busts; and 5) the model is quite successful in identifying booms and busts early on.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
- 13 November 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 963Details
- Abstract
- This paper looks at public and private sector wages interactions since the 1960s in the euro area, euro area countries and a number of other OECD countries. The paper reports, first, a strong positive annual contemporaneous correlation of public and private sector wages over the business cycle; this finding is robust across methods and measures of wages and quite general across countries. Second, we show evidence of long-run relationships between public and private sector wages in all countries. Finally, causality analysis suggests that feedback effects between private and public wages occur in a direct manner and, importantly also via prices. While influences from the private sector appear on the whole to be stronger, there are direct and indirect feedback effects from public wage setting in a number of countries as well. We show how country-specific institutional features of labour and product markets contain helpful information to explain the heterogeneity across countries of our results on public/private wage leadership.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J51 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Labor?Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining→Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects
J52 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Labor?Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining→Dispute Resolution: Strikes, Arbitration, and Mediation, Collective Bargaining
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General - Network
- Wage dynamics network
- 31 March 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 879Details
- Abstract
- This paper focuses on risk premiums paid by central governments in Europe and sub-national governments in Germany, Spain, and Canada. With regard to the European governments, we are interested in how these premiums were affected by the introduction of the euro. Using data for bond yield spreads relative to an appropriate benchmark, for the period 1991-2005, we find that risk premiums incurred by central governments of EU member states respond positively to central government debts and deficits. This is consistent with the notion of market-imposed fiscal discipline. We find that German states and, among them, especially those usually receiving transfers under the German fiscal equalization system, enjoyed a very favourable position in the financial markets before EMU as their risk premiums did not respond to fiscal balances. This special status seems to have disappeared with start of EMU. Monetary union, therefore, imposes more fiscal discipline on German states. In contrast, Spanish provinces paid risk premiums related to their fiscal balances both before and after the start of EMU. Both German and Spanish sub-central governments paid fixed interest rate premiums over their national governments which became smaller after the introduction of the euro and are more likely to be interpreted as liquidity premiums. We also estimate empirical models of risk premiums for Canadian provinces for which we find financial market penalties of adverse fiscal balances and debt indicators. However, as in the case of Germany before EMU, those provinces that typically receive transfers under the Canadian fiscal equalization scheme have a more favourable bond market treatment than others. The evidence of market discipline at work in European government bond markets supports the notion that the no-bailout clause in the EU Treaty is credible.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
H74 : Public Economics→State and Local Government, Intergovernmental Relations→State and Local Borrowing
- 31 January 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 861Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we examine the impact of public spending, education, and institutions on income distribution in advanced economies. We also assess the efficiency of public spending in redistributing income by using a DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) nonparametric approach. We find that public policies significantly affect income distribution, notably via social spending, and indirectly via high quality education/human capital and via sound economic institutions. Moreover, for our set of OECD countries, and within a two-step approach, several so-called non-discretionary factors help explaining public social spending inefficiencies.
- JEL Code
- C14 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
H40 : Public Economics→Publicly Provided Goods→General
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
- 27 September 2007
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 813Details
- Abstract
- Numerous countries have experienced boom-bust episodes in asset prices in the past 20 years. This study looks at stylised facts and conducts statistical and econometric analysis for such episodes, distinguishing between industrialised countries that experienced external adjustment (via real effective exchange rate depreciation during busts) and those that relied on an internal adjustment process (and experienced no depreciation). The study finds that different adjustment experiences are correlated with the degree of macroeconomic imbalances and balance sheet problems. Internal adjustment seems more prevalent when financial vulnerabilities, excess demand and competitiveness loss remain relatively contained in the boom. In the bust, internal adjusters experience more protracted but less deep downturns than external adjusters as imbalances unwind more slowly. Some Central and East European EU Member States are currently experiencing strong credit and asset price growth in conjunction with rapid economic expansion. Against this background the experience of other countries may raise awareness of related policy challenges.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
- 23 May 2007
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 757Details
- Abstract
- This study examines the business cycle behaviour of public consumption and its main components; the public wage bill (including compensation per employee and public employment) and intermediate consumption in the euro area aggregate, euro area countries and a group of selected non-euro area OECD countries (Denmark, Sweden, the UK, Japan and the US). It looks across a large number of variables and methods, using annual data from 1960 to 2005. It finds robust evidence supporting that public consumption, wages and employment co-move with the business cycle in a pro-cyclical manner with 1-2 year lags, notably for the euro area aggregate and euro area countries. The findings reflect mainly the correlation between cyclical developments (automatic stabilizers), but also point to the important role of pro-cyclical discretionary fiscal policies.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
- 15 March 2007
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 737Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we revisit one of the "missing links" between budget balances and the economic cycle, namely the impact of asset prices on fiscal revenues. We estimate revenue elasticities with respect to equity and real estate price indices for 16 OECD countries, as well as for a synthetic euro area aggregate. For a sub-sample of euro area countries, we use these elasticities to investigate the impact of asset prices on budget balances and the assessment of the fiscal stance by adjusting existing estimates of cyclically adjusted balances for the asset price "cycle". The results support the view that asset price movements are a major factor behind unexplained changes in the cyclically adjusted balance, which, if not accounted for, can lead to erroneous conclusions regarding underlying fiscal developments.
- JEL Code
- H2 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
- 28 June 2006
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 47Details
- Abstract
- Fiscal rules are instrumental for restraining deficit and spending biases in euro area Member States that could threaten the smooth functioning of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Ideally, fiscal rules should combine characteristics such as sufficient flexibility to allow for appropriate policy choices with the necessary simplicity and enforceability to actually discipline government behaviour. The Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact established such a rules-based framework for fiscal polices in EMU. However, the implementation of the Pact was less than fully satisfactory. One year ago, the Pact was reviewed and a reformed version adopted which emphasises more flexible rules and procedures, including more explicit room for judgement and discretion than in its original form. While its proponents argued that these revisions would strengthen commitment and implementation of the rules, others emphasised the risk of weakening the EU fiscal framework. A year on from the SGP reform, this paper takes stock of how the EU fiscal rules have evolved and how they have been implemented from the Maastricht Treaty to the present day, including initial experiences with the implementation of the reformed Pact. The first indications are of a smoother and consistent implementation, but with consolidation requirements that are rather lenient while fiscal targets and projections point to only slow and back-loaded progress towards sound public finances in many countries. The assessment of the implementation of the revised rules is therefore mixed. It is of the essence that the provisions of the revised SGP be rigorously implemented in order to ensure fiscal sustainability.
- JEL Code
- E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
- 26 May 2006
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 634Details
- Abstract
- This study examines reforms of public expenditure in industrialised countries over the past two decades. We distinguish ambitious and timid reformers and analyse in detail reform experiences in eight case studies of ambitious reform episodes. We find that ambitious reform countries reduce spending on transfers, subsidies and public consumption while largely sparing education spending. Such expenditure retrenchment is also typically part of a comprehensive reform package that includes improvements in fiscal institutions as well as structural and other macroeconomic reforms. The study finds that ambitious expenditure retrenchment and reform coincides with large improvements in fiscal and economic growth indicators.
- JEL Code
- H5 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
O57 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Comparative Studies of Countries
- 31 January 2006
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 581Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we analyse public sector efficiency in the new member states of the European Union compared to that in emerging markets. After a conceptual discussion of expenditure efficiency measurement issues, we compute efficiency scores and rankings by applying a range of measurement techniques. The study finds that expenditure efficiency across new EU member states is rather diverse especially as compared to the group of top performing emerging markets in Asia. Econometric analysis shows that higher income, civil service competence and education levels as well as the security of property rights seem to facilitate the prevention of inefficiencies in the public sector.
- JEL Code
- C14 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
H40 : Public Economics→Publicly Provided Goods→General
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
- 25 February 2005
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 438Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we review the linkages between the quality of public finances, that is, the level and composition of public expenditure and its financing via revenue and deficits, and economic growth. We review the various channels through which public finances affect growth and its underlying determinants (institutional framework, employment, savings and investment, innovation). The paper addresses the approaches used to assess the performance and efficiency of public spending, and surveys the empirical findings on the impact of fiscal variables on sustained economic growth.
- JEL Code
- H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
- 25 February 2005
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 435Details
- Abstract
- In this paper, we show that, contrary to common beliefs, over the past two decades several countries were able to reduce public spending by remarkable amounts. These countries did not seem to have suffered from these large reductions either in a macroeconomic sense, or in terms of lower values for socio-economic indicators. On the contrary, ambitious expenditure reform coincides with improvements in fiscal, economic, human development and institutional indicators. Positive developments associated with expenditure reform, in some instances, have taken a while to materialize and early and persistent reformers have, hence, already seen more of them. Unfavourable effects on income distribution within countries are small and they are mitigated in absolute terms by faster growth in the medium run and by the possibilities of better targeting of public spending. Moreover, there is significant divergence across countries that suggests that country circumstances and reform design matter.
- JEL Code
- H5 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
O57 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Comparative Studies of Countries
- 20 December 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 421Details
- Abstract
- The paper analyses the EU fiscal rules from a political economy perspective and derives some policy lessons. Following a literature survey, the paper stresses the importance of appropriate incentives for rule compliance in an environment where national fiscal sovereignty precludes the option of centralised enforcement. In addition, the paper stresses the importance of clear and simple rules and in particular the 3% deficit limit in anchoring expectations of fiscal discipline and facilitating public and market monitoring of public finances. This, in turn, strengthens incentive for rule compliance. Moreover, the paper discusses the interests of the most important players in European fiscal rule formation and the importance of choosing the appropriate time for initiating a reform debate.
- JEL Code
- D7 : Microeconomics→Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
H3 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
- 22 June 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 369Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides a study of bond yield differentials among EU eurobonds issued between 1991 and 2002. Interest differentials between bonds issued by EU countries and Germany or the USA contain risk premia which increase with the debt, deficit and debt-service ratio and depend positively on the issuer's relative bond market size. Global investors' attitude towards credit risk, measured as the yield spread between low grade US corporate bonds and government bonds, also affects bond yield spreads between EU countries and Germany/USA. The start of the European Monetary Union had significant effects on the bond pricing of the member states.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 1 July 2003
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 242Details
- Abstract
- We compute public sector performance (PSP) and efficiency (PSE) indicators, comprising a composite and seven sub-indicators, for 23 industrialised countries. The first four sub-indicators are "opportunity" indicators that take into account administrative, education and health outcomes and the quality of public infrastructure and that support the rule of law and a level playing-field in a market economy. Three other indicators reflect the standard "Musgravian" tasks for government: allocation, distribution, and stabilisation. The input and output efficiency of public sectors across countries is then measured via a non-parametric production frontier technique.
- JEL Code
- C14 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
- 1 November 2002
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 191Details
- Abstract
- This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the fiscal costs of financial instability (defined as major asset price changes and including, as extreme cases, financial crises). The study identifies three channels to fiscal accounts: 1) revenue effects on capital gains, asset turnover and consumption tax, 2) bailout costs as asset price declines undermine balance sheets of companies/banks, and 3) second-round effects from asset prices changes via the real economy and via debt service costs. A panel analysis and case studies show that episodes of financial instability increase the variability of fiscal balances. Moreover, fiscal costs are often very large and much larger than assumed in the literature so far with public debt rising by up to 50% of GDP during such episodes. These fiscal effects can also serve as a, so far under-emphasised, rationale for the deficit and debt targets in the EU�s Maastricht Treaty and Stability and Growth Pact.
- JEL Code
- H3 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- 1 May 2002
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 141Details
- Abstract
- The paper argues that there are important links between asset prices and public finances which can strongly affect the variability of fiscal balances. Asset prices affect fiscal balances via capital gains and turnover related taxes, and via wealth effects on consumption and indirect taxes. The fiscal costs of asset price changes can be higher if government can be held liable for balance sheet losses from an asset price downturn. An empirical study finds significant effects of house and/or stock prices on revenue in a majority of the 17 OECD countries and revenue categories examined. On average, a 10-percent change in real estate and stock prices has a similar effect on the fiscal balance as a 1-percent change in output, although effects differ considerably across countries. By 2001-2002, some countries' fiscal balances seem upward biased, due to positive effects from earlier asset price booms.
- JEL Code
- H3 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets