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Adrian Costeiu
- 24 September 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1592Details
- Abstract
- This paper builds a macro-prudential tool designed to assess whether the banking sector is adequately prepared to orderly withstand losses resulting from normal or stressed macroeconomic and microeconomic scenarios. The link between the banking sector and the real sector is established via the corporate sector channel. The macro-prudential tool consists of a two-step approach. In the first step, we build a model for the probability of default (PD) in the corporate sector, so as to quantify oneyear ahead developments in the quality of banks' corporate loans. The framework is established using micro data, with a bottom-up approach. The second step consists of bridging the PD model with a macroeconomic module in order to capture the feedback effects from the macroeconomic stance into the banking sector, via the corporate sector channel. The macro-prudential tool is tested on the Romanian economy.
- JEL Code
- G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications - Network
- Macroprudential Research Network