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2014 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2014 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 Sep. 2015 Sep. 2016 2019
Mean point estimate 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 61 60 52 48 44 49
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 Sep. 2015 Sep. 2016 2019
<-1.0% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 2.8 3.7 1.7 2.8 1.60.7
0.0 to 0.4% 31.3 14.9 6.8 11.7 6.72.9
0.5 to 0.9% 57.4 33.4 18.8 28.8 17.78.2
1.0 to 1.4% 5.7 31.6 31.9 32.6 30.521.7
1.5 to 1.9% 1.7 11.4 25.9 16.0 25.832.3
2.0 to 2.4% 0.4 2.9 9.3 4.9 11.220.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.1 1.0 3.6 1.7 4.18.8
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 1.43.3
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.51.1
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2014 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2019
Mean point estimate 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 61 60 51 48 43 44
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2019
<-1.0% 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.30.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.40.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 2.8 3.0 1.9 3.4 1.92.1
0.0 to 0.4% 15.0 9.1 5.2 11.5 6.54.7
0.5 to 0.9% 59.1 25.7 12.6 27.7 16.111.4
1.0 to 1.4% 17.3 36.2 26.0 30.0 25.622.0
1.5 to 1.9% 3.4 15.9 31.4 15.5 25.426.8
2.0 to 2.4% 0.9 5.5 13.8 6.0 14.118.2
2.5 to 2.9% 0.3 2.0 5.0 2.7 5.88.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.1 2.33.6
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 1.01.5
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.60.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2014 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 Aug. 2015 Aug. 2016 2019
Mean point estimate 11.6 11.3 10.9 11.3 10.9 9.5
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.8
Number of replies 55 55 47 41 38 38
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 Aug. 2015 Aug. 2016 2019
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.5
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.0
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.11.7
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.13.5
8.0 to 8.4% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.47.4
8.5 to 8.9% 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.911.3
9.0 to 9.4% 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.3 1.816.2
9.5 to 9.9% 0.3 1.2 4.7 1.9 4.518.1
10.0 to 10.4% 1.1 4.5 12.8 5.1 12.817.4
10.5 to 10.9% 3.3 16.4 26.3 17.3 25.912.0
11.0 to 11.4% 23.8 38.0 29.2 35.4 26.66.6
11.5 to 11.9% 57.4 26.6 16.3 27.1 17.52.8
12.0 to 12.4% 10.0 9.3 5.7 8.7 6.41.0
12.5 to 12.9% 2.6 2.4 1.6 2.6 1.90.3
13.0 to 13.4% 0.8 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.80.1
13.5 to 13.9% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.10.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0