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INTERVISTA
18/05/2025
Ora più che mai abbiamo bisogno dell’Europa
In questi tempi di incertezza è più che mai necessaria l’integrazione europea, dichiara la Presidente Christine Lagarde a La Tribune Dimanche. I leader europei devono cogliere l’opportunità e accelerare il processo di approfondimento della nostra unione.
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INTERVENTO
16/05/2025
Rischio e incertezza nella comunicazione delle politiche
Nell’ambito dell’attuale valutazione della strategia di politica monetaria, una questione centrale è come integrare nel miglior modo possibile il rischio e l’incertezza nelle nostre decisioni di politica monetaria e nelle nostre comunicazioni, dichiara il Capo economista Philip R. Lane.
Leggi il discorso
PUBBLICAZIONE
20/05/2025
Le tensioni commerciali aumentano i rischi
La maggiore incertezza sulle politiche commerciali si potrebbe ripercuotere sul sistema finanziario e sull’economia reale. Al tempo stesso, l’applicazione di restrizioni agli scambi tende a ridurre la domanda esterna nonché ad accrescere i prezzi e i costi di produzione.
Anteprima della Financial Stability Review- 21 May 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 20 May 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 20 May 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 20 May 2025
- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
- 16 May 2025
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 13 May 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 13 May 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 16 May 2025
- Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference
- 15 May 2025
- Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) Annual General Meeting
- 15 May 2025
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the France Payments Forum event “Digital euro and the future of payments in Europe”
- 10 May 2025
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Hoover Monetary Policy Conference “Finishing the Job and New Challenges”, Stanford University
- 29 April 2025
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the conference on “Policy challenges in a fragmenting world: Global trade, exchange rates, and capital flow” organised by the Bank for International Settlements, the Bank of England, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund
- 18 May 2025
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie-Pierre Gröndahl on 8 May 2025
- 3 May 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jakob Zirm on 28 April 2025
- 24 March 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf
- 16 March 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jon Ihle
- 7 March 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Patricia Hecht and Beate Willms on 5 February 2025
- 8 May 2025
- Foreign workers play an increasingly important role in the euro area labour markets. This ECB blog analyses the effects migrants had on growth across the largest countries in recent years. It also discusses changing labour market participation patterns among foreign workers.Details
- JEL Code
- J10 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→General
- 5 May 2025
- Lasting high energy prices are putting pressure on industries across Europe. This is hitting some regions, such as southern Germany, the Ruhr and northern Italy, harder than others. The ECB Blog examines the implications for employment.Details
- JEL Code
- J60 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→General
Q40 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→General
- 30 April 2025
- The ECB Blog explores how European consumers react to the prospect of higher trade tariffs. It finds that many are very willing to switch away from US products.Details
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
- 29 April 2025
- At the end of 2024 – after nearly five years of operations, more than 110, 000 bond market transactions and peak holdings of €1.7 trillion – reinvestments under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) came to an end. This blog post takes stock and highlights some aspects of PEPP implementation in light of the data we now make publicly available.Details
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 25 April 2025
- One year after its announcement, the new operational framework is working as intended. Euro area banks have adapted to declining central bank reserves as the Eurosystem's balance sheet is normalising. The ECB Blog assesses how banks and money markets cope with the new environment.Details
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
ESTR : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEWAnnexes
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the decline in the share of non-banks’ liquid asset holdings and the implications of this for financial stability. In recent years, the share of cash equivalents and HQLA Level 1 holdings has significantly decreased, which may reduce the ability of non-banks to absorb shocks and meet payment obligations, especially under stressed market conditions. Valuation losses on HQLA Level 1 bonds, higher valuation gains on HQLA Level 2 equities and increased investment in less liquid assets have been the key drivers of this decline. Additionally, not all HQLAs retain their liquidity in times of stress. The growing share of HQLA Level 2 assets primarily consists of traded equities, which can suffer sharp valuation losses during periods of market stress and it may only be possible to liquidate them at a significant discount. Furthermore, growing non-bank reliance on indirect exposure to liquid assets via holdings of investment fund shares introduces additional risks, as their liquidity may be uncertain in stress periods. This creates the potential for financial contagion across non-bank financial intermediation sectors, highlighting the need for closer monitoring of liquidity risk and its broader systemic implications.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Private market financing can bring both benefits and risks for euro area financial stability. On the one hand, companies with access to private market financing display significantly higher productivity levels than companies financed solely by banks. This might be due to a positive screening effect or result over the medium to long term from an increase in a company’s intangible assets and long-term investments after the entry of private markets. On the other hand, the entry of private markets is associated with higher indebtedness and a decreased capacity to pay interest. The chances of spillover from these worsened risk metrics to euro area non-bank financial entities appears limited, but concerns remain around concentration risks and complex bank lending exposures. Opaqueness and data scarcity hinder full risk assessment.
- JEL Code
- D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Digitalisation is transforming the delivery of banking services, leading to the emergence of new digital bank business models. Small retail deposits, many of which are cross-border, are the main source of funding for digital banks in the euro area. They follow one of two main types of business model: that of a lender or that of a similar nature to a money market fund. Their lending franchises tend to be narrowly specialised. Digital banks are less profitable than their traditional peers due to their higher cost of deposits and fixed expenses, but they are highly valued by equity investors. The continued growth of digital banks could bring benefits for customers but may also threaten financial stability by displacing incumbents and increasing cross-border spillovers.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
L20 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→General
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The box estimates the deposit franchise value of euro area banks and examines its relationship with the interest rate environment, market concentration and bank valuations. The deposit franchise value is defined as the long-term present value of earnings from low-cost, stable deposit funding, minus operating expenses. It can act as a stabilising force by bolstering profitability and containing interest rate risk. The deposit franchise value rises as market rates increase. Banks with greater market concentration, cost efficiency and market power tend to have higher deposit franchise values. Higher deposit franchise values are also associated with more favourable market valuations.
- JEL Code
- E41, E43, G21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- In recent years, the intertwining of geopolitical tensions and cyber threats has become increasingly pronounced, with state-sponsored cyberattacks playing an increasingly important role in the perpetration of hybrid conflicts. This phenomenon is primarily driven by a small number of countries, often characterised as authoritarian, which use their cyber capabilities to further national interests. These cyberattacks frequently target critical infrastructures and state institutions, focusing predominantly on data theft, sabotage and influence campaigns. The threat of cyberattacks to financial stability is significant, given the growing digitalisation and interconnectedness within the financial system. Cyberattacks can disrupt essential financial services, posing systemic risks through operational, financial and confidence channels. Increasing dependency on third-party providers amplifies these vulnerabilities. In times of heightened geopolitical tension, the risk of cyberattacks aimed at causing maximum disruption is elevated. It is therefore imperative for authorities and financial institutions to prioritise cybersecurity, develop resilience and enhance cooperation to effectively mitigate such risks.
- JEL Code
- F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
F52 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→National Security, Economic Nationalism
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The number of older people in the EU has increased markedly in recent decades and is projected to go on rising. This trend may pose challenges to financial stability given the adjustments needed in both the real economy and the financial sector to adapt to the demands of an ageing society. Building on the extensive body of literature examining the impact of population ageing on the real economy, this special feature investigates the channels through which population ageing could elevate financial stability concerns in the financial and non-financial sectors, bearing in mind possible interdependencies across sectors. Comprehensive policy actions appear warranted to meet the challenges posed by an ageing population to financial stability. These can range from boosting productivity growth and labour force participation rates to ensuring the sustainability of pension systems by increasing market-based retirement savings, also in the context of the developing capital markets union.
- JEL Code
- D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
J14 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of the Elderly, Economics of the Handicapped, Non-Labor Market Discrimination
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The market capitalisation of crypto-assets has surged recently, fuelled by positive and broadening investor interest, including from traditional finance. Several key financial stability risks associated with crypto-assets have been identified in past editions of this publication and by the Financial Stability Board. They include, among others, interconnectedness with traditional finance, market volatility and lack of transparency, liquidity and maturity mismatches, and leverage and concentration. This special feature focuses on the first two. For these sources, risks for financial stability in the euro area appear limited, but there are signs that interconnectedness between the crypto-asset ecosystem and the traditional financial sector is strengthening. As it does, new channels of potential contagion are opening up, warranting closer monitoring. At the same time, euro area households’ direct exposures are slowly rising from low levels. Data gaps, especially for the crypto exposures of non-banks and leverage, pose challenges both for monitoring and for assessing the scale of these sources of systemic risk. It is therefore essential that these data gaps be closed and that responsible authorities remain vigilant. Although the EU has established a stringent regulatory framework, global regulation is either fragmented or absent, raising the risk of regulatory arbitrage and contagion from abroad.
- JEL Code
- G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G51 : Financial Economics
- 20 May 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3057The impact of monetary policy and macroprudential policy on corporate lending rates in the Euro areaDetails
- Abstract
- We examine the differential impact of monetary policy and macroprudential policy on bank lending rates in the euro area, using granular corporate loan-level data for the period 2019-2023. We find three results: First, consistent with the predictions of a stylized theoretical model of bank lending rates, monetary policy exerts an order of magnitude larger impact on lending rates than macroprudential policy. Second, the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission weakens when interest rates are close to or below zero. Third, the impact of macroprudential policy on lending rates increases when banks have limited capital headroom above capital buffer requirements, indicating cautious lending behavior when banks get close to regulatory constraints. Our findings have important policy implications for the joint conduct of monetary and macroprudential policy.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 20 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Trade tensions can be a threat to financial stability, with both the implementation of trade restrictions and trade policy uncertainty resulting in adverse consequences. In this special feature, we show that trade policy uncertainty can adversely affect the real economy as well as banks’ funding, asset quality, profitability and lending. Policy authorities need to identify risks stemming from trade tensions, monitor their transmission and evaluate their potential impact on financial stability. Sound capital and liquidity buffers are financial institutions’ first line of defence to absorb shocks stemming from trade disruptions. However, banks should also conduct regular assessments to identify and evaluate these specific risks. In addition, they should diversify portfolios to minimise their exposure to such risks. A box within the special feature analyses the risks of euro area equities repricing across sectors in response to developments in the United States, with a particular focus on news relating to trade policy.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 19 May 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3056Details
- Abstract
- This study investigates to what extent the significant liquidity injections by the ECB over the past 15 years may have created a dependency by banks on central bank liquidity itself. Following Acharya et al. (2024), I examine whether the ECB's liquidity provision changed banks' incentives to increase liquid deposits, potentially heightening their susceptibility to liquidity shocks. Using both aggregate and bank-level data, I find that euro area banks tend to increase demand deposits and decrease time deposits with their holdings of excess reserves over the liquidity expansion phase and do not revert when aggregate liquidity starts to shrink. However, this is contained to specific periods, when interest rates were low and stable. The differences relative to the US could be related to distinct sources of liquidity and regulatory frameworks governing liquidity.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 19 May 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 19 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Since 2023 the price of gold has reached record highs, underscoring its role as a safe haven during periods of financial and geopolitical stress. Unlike other assets, gold does not provide cash flow and carries no counterparty risk, making it appealing in uncertain times. Gold outperforms equities and bonds during crises, reaffirming its stabilising role in investors’ portfolios. Recent trends in gold futures markets highlight increased investor demand and a preference for physical delivery amid economic policy uncertainty and trade tensions. Euro area investors have exposure to gold through derivatives, with notable foreign counterparty risks, indicating potential vulnerabilities. Although aggregate exposure is limited, the concentrated and leveraged nature of commodity markets poses systemic risks. During extreme geopolitical or economic events, these risk factors could lead to liquidity stress and market disruptions, affecting financial stability. Gold markets thus reflect broader risk perceptions, with important implications for financial systems.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 16 May 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 14 May 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3055Details
- Abstract
- Central banks increasingly act as market-makers-of-last-resort, yet the impact and exit of such interventions remain poorly understood. Using euro-area data, we analyze the cycle of market freeze, intervention, and exit in short-term debt markets. A run on money market funds (MMFs) triggered a collapse in these markets in March 2020. Firms replaced only 27% of lost funding through credit lines. The European Central Bank intervened, fully replacing MMFs for some firms and allowing them to issue more debt at lower rates and longer maturities. After the ECB’s exit, more-exposed firms faced higher yields (+20.2 bps), reduced MMF investments, and fewer new relationships. Credit line take-up did not materially change post-exit.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- 12 May 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3054Details
- Abstract
- We introduce an information provision experiment into a standard dynamic rational inattention model. We derive analytical results about how the treatment effect varies with characteristics of the environment and the individual. We use these results to discuss findings in the empirical literature on information provision experiments that can be explained by rational inattention of survey respondents and what this interpretation implies about behavior outside the survey.
- JEL Code
- D8 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
D9 : Microeconomics→Intertemporal Choice
E7 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- 8 May 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 8 May 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3053Details
- Abstract
- I assess the impact of the recent hike in bank lending rates on euro area retail borrowers using a novel microsimulation framework that updates household-level data of a recent representative survey with up-to-date macro-financial information. The key novelty is that existing mortgages are gradually repaid, and new ones are extended, a feature necessary for medium-term simulations in a period of sizable credit growth. Since lending rates have increased, debt servicing has become more demanding, and the simulated share of distressed loans has increased. Effects are stronger for adjustable-rate mortgages, and especially for the most recent among them, but are present in all portfolios.
- JEL Code
- C1 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
G51 : Financial Economics
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 7 May 2025
- CONSULTATION RESPONSE
Tassi di interesse
| Depositi presso la banca centrale | 2,25 % |
| Operazioni di rifinanziamento principali (tasso fisso) | 2,40 % |
| Operazioni di rifinanziamento marginale | 2,65 % |
Tasso di inflazione
Leggi di più sull’inflazioneTassi di cambio
| USD | US dollar | 1.1241 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 162.59 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.84180 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9366 |
Stabilità finanziaria
I nostri compiti Quadro istituzionale Financial Stability Review Misure macroprudenzialiOperazioni di mercato
Operazioni di mercato aperto Programmi di acquisto di attività Prestito di titoli del PSPPNON SEI UN ESPERTO? LEGGI “FACCIAMO CHIAREZZA”
APPROFONDISCI
Cos’è la Banca centrale europea?