Unemployment rate forecasts
The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO’s definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.
Mean point estimates (all survey rounds)
Survey round | Current calendar year | Next calendar year | Calendar year after next | One year ahead | Two years ahead | Longer term (five years ahead) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1999 Q1 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 9.5 | |
1999 Q2 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | ||
1999 Q3 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.6 | ||
1999 Q4 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.2 | ||
2000 Q1 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 8.1 | |
2000 Q2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 8.3 | ||
2000 Q3 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | |
2000 Q4 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.1 | |
2001 Q1 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 7.2 | |
2001 Q2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.3 | |
2001 Q3 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 7.1 |
2001 Q4 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 7.2 |
2002 Q1 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 7.3 | |
2002 Q2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 7.2 | |
2002 Q3 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 7.1 |
2002 Q4 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 |
2003 Q1 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.1 | |
2003 Q2 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 7.5 | |
2003 Q3 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 7.4 |
2003 Q4 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 7.4 |
2004 Q1 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 7.4 | |
2004 Q2 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 7.5 | |
2004 Q3 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 7.5 |
2004 Q4 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 7.5 |
2005 Q1 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 7.5 | |
2005 Q2 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 7.6 | |
2005 Q3 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 7.6 |
2005 Q4 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 7.5 |
2006 Q1 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 7.2 | |
2006 Q2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 7.2 | |
2006 Q3 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
2006 Q4 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.0 |
2007 Q1 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 6.9 | |
2007 Q2 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | |
2007 Q3 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.4 |
2007 Q4 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.4 |
2008 Q1 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 6.7 | |
2008 Q2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 6.6 | |
2008 Q3 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 6.9 |
2008 Q4 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
2009 Q1 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 7.8 | |
2009 Q2 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 8.4 | |
2009 Q3 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 8.5 |
2009 Q4 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 8.5 |
2010 Q1 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 8.6 | |
2010 Q2 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 8.5 | |
2010 Q3 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 8.4 |
2010 Q4 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 8.3 |
2011 Q1 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 8.3 | |
2011 Q2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 8.2 | |
2011 Q3 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 8.2 |
2011 Q4 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 8.5 |
2012 Q1 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 8.8 | |
2012 Q2 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 8.9 | |
2012 Q3 | 11.2 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 9.2 |
2012 Q4 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 9.0 |
2013 Q1 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 9.5 |
2013 Q2 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 9.6 |
2013 Q3 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 9.7 |
2013 Q4 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 9.5 |
2014 Q1 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 9.6 |
2014 Q2 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 11.7 | 11.2 | 9.5 |
2014 Q3 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 10.9 | 9.4 |
2014 Q4 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 |
2015 Q1 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 9.4 |
2015 Q2 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 9.2 |
2015 Q3 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 9.0 |
2015 Q4 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 9.2 |
2016 Q1 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.0 |
2016 Q2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 8.8 |
2016 Q3 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 8.8 |
2016 Q4 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 8.7 |
2017 Q1 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 8.5 |
2017 Q2 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 8.4 |
2017 Q3 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
2017 Q4 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 7.9 |
2018 Q1 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 7.5 |
2018 Q2 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 7.4 |
2018 Q3 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.5 |
2018 Q4 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.5 |
2019 Q1 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
2019 Q2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.4 |
2019 Q3 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.3 |
2019 Q4 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
2020 Q1 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.3 |
2020 Q2 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 7.7 |
2020 Q3 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 7.7 |
2020 Q4 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 7.6 |
2021 Q1 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 7.4 |
2021 Q2 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 7.4 |
2021 Q3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 |
2021 Q4 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
2022 Q1 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.7 |
2022 Q2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.6 |
2022 Q3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.4 |
2022 Q4 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.6 |
2023 Q1 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.4 |
2023 Q2 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.5 |
2023 Q3 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
2023 Q4 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
2024 Q1 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
2024 Q2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.4 |
2024 Q3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
2024 Q4 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
2025 Q1 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.3 |
2025 Q2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.2 |
2025 Q3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.2 |
2025 Q4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.2 |