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2018 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2018 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 Dec. 2018 Dec. 2019 2022
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 55 51 43 48 46 45
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 Dec. 2018 Dec. 2019 2022
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.20.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.91.0
0.0 to 0.4% 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.72.7
0.5 to 0.9% 8.1 7.1 7.2 9.4 8.07.0
1.0 to 1.4% 32.1 24.1 20.1 28.2 20.117.0
1.5 to 1.9% 41.7 40.4 37.2 36.7 35.133.9
2.0 to 2.4% 11.5 17.6 20.3 16.0 21.722.6
2.5 to 2.9% 3.1 5.9 7.8 4.7 7.89.6
3.0 to 3.4% 0.6 1.5 2.6 0.8 2.53.7
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.71.5
>4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.10.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q1 core inflation forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 Dec. 2018 Dec. 2019 2022
Mean point estimate 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 35 34 29 32 31 29
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 Dec. 2018 Dec. 2019 2022
<-1.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.10.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.20.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.60.5
0.0 to 0.4% 2.5 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.22.5
0.5 to 0.9% 18.6 11.7 8.0 15.7 10.47.1
1.0 to 1.4% 49.6 33.0 24.6 39.6 26.719.5
1.5 to 1.9% 24.3 35.8 37.4 31.0 37.038.5
2.0 to 2.4% 3.1 13.4 19.5 8.5 18.521.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.9 2.6 5.2 1.3 3.27.0
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.8 1.6 0.3 0.92.6
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.30.9
>4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.00.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2022
Mean point estimate 2.3 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.6
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 56 52 43 50 47 41
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2022
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.20.6
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.81.8
0.0 to 0.4% 0.5 1.8 3.3 0.7 2.04.4
0.5 to 0.9% 1.7 5.0 8.2 2.5 5.310.1
1.0 to 1.4% 6.1 13.0 17.9 7.4 14.523.3
1.5 to 1.9% 20.7 29.0 31.4 22.1 29.129.2
2.0 to 2.4% 41.4 31.2 24.5 36.0 28.417.4
2.5 to 2.9% 22.5 13.9 9.2 22.5 13.38.0
3.0 to 3.4% 5.1 3.7 2.7 5.6 3.83.2
3.5 to 3.9% 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.7 1.41.2
>4.0% 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.10.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 Nov. 2018 Nov. 2019 2022
Mean point estimate 8.4 7.9 7.6 8.2 7.8 7.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7
Number of replies 52 49 39 45 43 37
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 Nov. 2018 Nov. 2019 2022
<5.5% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.21.1
5.5 to 5.9% 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.62.2
6.0 to 6.4% 0.2 1.2 3.6 0.6 2.57.0
6.5 to 6.9% 0.6 4.4 10.7 2.0 7.812.3
7.0 to 7.4% 2.1 13.4 24.5 7.2 18.018.1
7.5 to 7.9% 15.0 30.0 26.2 25.6 27.122.3
8.0 to 8.4% 42.2 28.4 18.8 35.4 23.616.8
8.5 to 8.9% 29.2 14.3 9.3 20.5 12.89.9
9.0 to 9.4% 7.4 5.4 3.3 6.1 4.85.5
9.5 to 9.9% 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.52.6
10.0 to 10.4% 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.61.3
10.5 to 10.9% 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.30.6
11.0 to 11.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.3
11.5 to 11.9% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.1
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0