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John Theal
- 26 February 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 368Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an overview of recent analytical work conducted, under their own aegis, by experts from various European authorities and institutions in the field of crypto-asset monitoring. Currently, risks stemming from crypto-assets and the potential implications for central banking domains are limited and/or manageable, including as regards the existing regulatory and oversight frameworks. Nevertheless, the importance of monitoring developments in crypto-assets, raising awareness of the potential risks and fostering preparedness cannot be overstated. In light of this, this paper sets out the background to the establishment of the Crypto-Asset Monitoring Expert Group (CAMEG) in late 2023 to bring together experts from the Eurosystem’s central banks and from the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB). It also provides abstracts of various papers and other analytical works presented at the inaugural CAMEG conference held on 24 and 25 October 2024. The conference aimed to take stock of analytical work and data issues in this area, while fostering European collaboration and monitoring in the field of crypto-assets. Finally, this paper outlines the prospective way forward for the CAMEG, focusing on gaining greater insight into data in this area and deepening analytical work on interlinkages, crypto-asset adoption and the latest trends.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 29 August 2012
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1464Details
- Abstract
- Severe financial turbulences are driven by high impact and low probability events that are the characteristic hallmarks of systemic financial stress. These unlikely adverse events arise from the extreme tail of a probability distribution and are therefore very poorly captured by traditional econometric models that rely on the assumption of normality. In order to address the problem of extreme tail events, we adopt a mixture vector autoregressive (MVAR) model framework that allows for a multi-modal distribution of the residuals. A comparison between the respective results of a VAR and MVAR approach suggests that the mixture of distributions allows for a better assessment of the effect that adverse shocks have on counterparty credit risk, the real economy and banks' capital requirements. Consequently, we argue that the MVAR provides a more accurate assessment of risk since it captures the fat tail events often observed in time series of default probabilities.
- JEL Code
- C15 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Statistical Simulation Methods: General
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages - Network
- Macroprudential Research Network