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2011 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2011 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2011 2012 Mar. 2012 Mar. 2013 2015
Mean point estimate 2.5 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 55 55 46 40 48
Probability distributions 2011 2012 Mar. 2012 Mar. 2013 2015
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.20.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.60.7
0.0 to 0.4% 0.2 1.4 1.4 2.01.8
0.5 to 0.9% 0.5 3.8 4.6 6.65.1
1.0 to 1.4% 2.0 13.2 14.4 16.912.8
1.5 to 1.9% 8.4 34.5 28.0 33.129.2
2.0 to 2.4% 32.2 29.5 31.4 24.929.5
2.5 to 2.9% 40.5 11.8 14.1 11.413.4
3.0 to 3.4% 12.4 3.7 4.2 3.24.8
3.5 to 3.9% 3.2 1.2 1.2 0.81.5
>4.0% 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.20.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2011 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2011 2012 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2015
Mean point estimate 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 55 55 47 45 48
Probability distributions 2011 2012 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2015
<-1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.40.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.40.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.20.7
0.0 to 0.4% 1.7 2.9 2.6 3.52.3
0.5 to 0.9% 5.3 7.1 8.6 9.17.0
1.0 to 1.4% 20.2 23.6 25.1 21.317.2
1.5 to 1.9% 44.3 36.6 38.0 32.930.3
2.0 to 2.4% 20.5 18.5 17.6 19.425.3
2.5 to 2.9% 5.2 5.8 5.0 7.710.6
3.0 to 3.4% 1.4 2.5 1.2 3.14.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.91.4
>4.0% 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.20.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2011 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2011 2012 Feb. 2012 Feb. 2013 2015
Mean point estimate 9.8 9.5 9.6 9.2 8.2
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6
Number of replies 53 53 42 38 45
Probability distributions 2011 2012 Feb. 2012 Feb. 2013 2015
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.8
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.23.0
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.57.0
7.5 to 7.9% 0.2 1.0 0.4 2.017.1
8.0 to 8.4% 0.9 3.4 1.7 6.924.9
8.5 to 8.9% 3.3 11.1 7.4 18.121.2
9.0 to 9.4% 14.5 27.5 23.5 31.113.4
9.5 to 9.9% 49.4 36.2 40.3 25.37.4
10.0 to 10.4% 25.2 14.5 18.1 11.23.4
10.5 to 10.9% 4.8 4.4 5.6 3.51.1
11.0 to 11.4% 1.3 1.0 1.8 0.70.5
11.5 to 11.9% 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.30.1
12.0 to 12.4% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.10.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.00.0
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.00.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0