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2002 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2002 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2002 2003 Mar. 2003 Mar. 2004 2006
Mean point estimate 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 57 56 54 47 42
Probability distributions 2002 2003 Mar. 2003 Mar. 2004 2006
<0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.3
0.0-0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.41.0
0.5-0.9% 0.3 1.4 1.7 2.73.5
1.0-1.4% 5.1 11.8 12.3 12.813.7
1.5-1.9% 33.6 44.1 43.7 40.537.1
2.0-2.4% 47.1 31.6 28.6 30.831.8
2.5-2.9% 12.2 8.6 11.3 8.38.8
3.0-3.4% 1.3 1.8 1.9 3.82.9
>3.5% 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.70.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2002 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2002 2003 2002 Q4 2003 Q4 2006
Mean point estimate 1.4 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 58 57 54 51 44
Probability distributions 2002 2003 2002 Q4 2003 Q4 2006
<0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.10.3
0.0-0.4% 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.20.4
0.5-0.9% 11.7 0.9 2.5 1.01.7
1.0-1.4% 44.4 3.9 5.8 3.85.0
1.5-1.9% 31.7 11.5 18.1 11.49.9
2.0-2.4% 9.2 27.0 36.2 28.829.1
2.5-2.9% 1.4 37.4 26.3 37.937.3
3.0-3.4% 0.2 15.9 8.4 13.811.7
3.5-3.9% 0.1 2.3 1.5 2.63.6
>4.0% 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.41.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2002 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2002 2003 Feb. 2003 Feb. 2004 2006
Mean point estimate 8.5 8.2 8.4 8.0 7.2
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7
Number of replies 56 54 47 43 39
Probability distributions 2002 2003 Feb. 2003 Feb. 2004 2006
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.1
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.12.5
6.0-6.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.36.4
6.5-6.9% 0.1 0.7 0.3 2.217.6
7.0-7.4% 0.4 3.6 2.3 8.423.8
7.5-7.9% 5.3 22.5 16.2 30.022.4
8.0-8.4% 42.0 42.3 43.8 34.113.4
8.5-8.9% 40.9 21.6 27.0 16.27.5
9.0-9.4% 9.4 6.3 7.6 6.43.6
9.5-9.9% 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.71.4
10.0-10.4% 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.50.4
10.5-10.9% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.10.0
>11.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0