Spillovers in a “post-pandemic, low-for-long” world
Joint BIS, BoE, ECB and IMF Conference
Monday, 26 and Tuesday, 27 April 2021
Video conference (by invitation only)
In recent decades, cross-country economic and financial interdependencies have become more and more complex. At the same time, the decline in global interest rates, which began before the global financial crisis, has deepened. In this environment, policy mixes featuring unconventional monetary policy, foreign exchange interventions, macroprudential measures and capital flow management have increasingly been adopted to better cope with the spillovers of a highly interconnected global economy. An additional layer of complexity has been introduced by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and its consequences for the global economy, public finances, monetary policy and financial fragilities. This conference aims to close gaps in our understanding of the international transmission of local vulnerabilities and shocks in a post-pandemic, high-debt, low interest rate environment.
Programme
Times are Central European Time (UTC+1)
* indicates the presenter
- 14:00
Welcome remarks
Monetary autonomy in a globalised worldFabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
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Session 1 - Spillovers
Chair: Livio Stracca, European Central Bank
- 14:30
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What goes around comes around: how large are spillbacks from US monetary policy really?
- Max Breitenlechner, University of Innsbruck
- Georgios Georgiadis*, European Central Bank
- Ben Schumann, Free University of Berlin
Discussant: Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Bank of England
- 15:15
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Supply spillovers during the pandemic: evidence from high-frequency shipping data
- Diego Cerdeiro, IMF
- Andras Komaromi*, IMF
Discussant: Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, University of Texas at Austin
- 16:00
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Interest rates and foreign spillovers
- Roberto de Santis*, European Central Bank
- Srečko Zimic, European Central Bank
Discussant: Chiara Scotti, Federal Reserve Board
- 16:40
Break
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Session 2 – Capital flows and macroprudential policy
Angela Maddaloni, European Central Bank
- 17:00
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Surges and instability: the maturity shortening channel
- Xiang Li*, Halle Institute for Economic Research
- Dan Su, University of Minnesota
Discussant: Mahvash Qureshi, IMF
- 17:45
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Spillovers at the extremes: macroprudential tools and vulnerability to the global financial cycle
- Kristin Forbes, MIT Sloan School of Management
- Anusha Chari, University of North Carolina
- Karlye Dilts-Stedman*, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Discussant: Damiano Sandri, IMF
- 18:30
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End of day one
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Session 3 – COVID-19 effects and monetary policy responses
Chair: Katrin Assenmacher, European Central Bank
- 14:30
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An event study of COVID-19 central bank quantitative easing in advanced and emerging economies
- Alessandro Rebucci*, Johns Hopkins University
- Jonathan Hartley, Harvard University
- Daniel Jiménez, EAFIT University
Discussant: Kristina Bluwstein, Bank of England
- 15:15
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The calming of short-term market fears and its long-term consequences: the Federal Reserve’s reaction to COVID-19
- Lerby Ergun*, Bank of Canada
- Mattia Bevilacqua, London School of Economics
- Lukas Brandl-Cheng, London School of Economics
- Jon Danielsson, London School of Economics
- Andreas Uthemann, Bank of Canada
- Jean-Pierre Zigrand, London School of Economics
Discussant: Saleem Bahaj, Bank of England
- 16:00
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ECB euro liquidity lines
- Silvia Albrizio*, Banco de España
- Ivan Kataryniuk, Banco de España
- Luis Molina, Banco de España
Discussant: Iñaki Aldasoro, BIS
- 16:40
Break
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Session 4 – Exchange rates and currency exposures
Chair: Luca Dedola, European Central Bank
- 17:00
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The original sin redux: a model-based evaluation
- Nikhil Patel, BIS
- Boris Hofmann, BIS
- Steve Pak Yeung Wu*, University of British Columbia
Discussant: Ozge Akinci, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- 17:45
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The exchange rate insulation puzzle
- Giancarlo Corsetti*, Cambridge University
- Keith Kuester, University of Bonn
- Gernot Müller, University of Tübingen
- Sebastian Schmidt, European Central Bank
Discussant: Anna Lipinska, Federal Reserve Board
- 18:30
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End of the conference
This programme may be subject to change without notice.
| Conference language | English |
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| Timing |
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| Contact | SpilloverConference2021@ecb.europa.eu |