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2019 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2019 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 June 2020 June 2021 2024
Mean point estimate 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 51 50 39 44 33 39
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 June 2020 June 2021 2024
<-1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.30.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.50.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.01.6
0.0 to 0.4% 3.0 4.8 4.8 5.7 5.63.8
0.5 to 0.9% 18.5 15.8 12.6 17.6 14.610.2
1.0 to 1.4% 50.2 37.1 30.4 34.3 29.022.8
1.5 to 1.9% 22.0 27.4 29.6 28.1 28.131.7
2.0 to 2.4% 4.2 8.9 13.0 8.6 13.116.4
2.5 to 2.9% 0.8 3.3 5.1 2.9 5.17.6
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.8 1.7 0.7 1.33.2
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.31.3
>4.0% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2019 Q3 core inflation forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 June 2020 June 2021 2024
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 31 31 24 29 22 24
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 June 2020 June 2021 2024
<-1.0% 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.40.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.60.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.20.9
0.0 to 0.4% 2.6 3.9 3.1 4.7 3.43.7
0.5 to 0.9% 28.3 20.4 14.0 24.3 15.911.6
1.0 to 1.4% 54.8 43.3 36.1 40.2 34.027.0
1.5 to 1.9% 10.8 23.7 30.4 21.8 29.533.1
2.0 to 2.4% 1.8 6.1 9.9 5.9 10.114.6
2.5 to 2.9% 0.4 1.3 3.4 0.9 3.35.4
3.0 to 3.4% 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.3 1.02.0
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.50.8
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.20.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2019 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2024
Mean point estimate 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2
Number of replies 51 50 38 44 34 38
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2024
<-1.0% 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.71.0
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.01.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.8 2.7 2.7 3.2 2.93.1
0.0 to 0.4% 5.7 8.1 7.1 9.6 7.57.2
0.5 to 0.9% 24.2 18.8 15.6 23.9 15.915.9
1.0 to 1.4% 46.1 33.8 31.7 30.2 35.329.1
1.5 to 1.9% 16.3 21.8 24.9 19.9 20.222.8
2.0 to 2.4% 3.6 8.0 9.4 6.5 8.610.6
2.5 to 2.9% 1.0 3.4 4.4 2.5 4.14.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 1.2 1.9 1.1 1.72.3
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 1.01.0
>4.0% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.10.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2019 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 May 2020 May 2021 2024
Mean point estimate 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.3
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4
Number of replies 46 45 35 39 32 33
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 May 2020 May 2021 2024
<5.5% 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.4 1.01.9
5.5 to 5.9% 0.4 1.0 2.4 0.9 2.43.6
6.0 to 6.4% 1.1 3.5 6.4 2.8 5.88.2
6.5 to 6.9% 4.0 12.0 16.7 11.3 15.916.9
7.0 to 7.4% 28.6 30.9 28.2 29.0 24.921.6
7.5 to 7.9% 47.7 29.2 22.2 32.4 24.618.5
8.0 to 8.4% 12.5 13.8 12.8 15.0 14.012.7
8.5 to 8.9% 3.1 5.4 6.0 5.0 6.47.1
9.0 to 9.4% 1.5 2.3 2.3 1.9 2.74.4
9.5 to 9.9% 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.32.2
10.0 to 10.4% 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.51.2
10.5 to 10.9% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.30.7
11.0 to 11.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.4
11.5 to 11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.2
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0