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2019 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2019 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 Dec. 2019 Dec. 2020 2023
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 57 51 40 49 46 44
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 Dec. 2019 Dec. 2020 2023
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.50.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.51.5
0.0 to 0.4% 2.4 2.9 3.3 2.7 3.63.3
0.5 to 0.9% 10.2 10.1 8.5 10.2 11.07.8
1.0 to 1.4% 28.3 24.6 21.0 25.9 21.818.3
1.5 to 1.9% 39.2 36.5 34.4 34.2 29.634.0
2.0 to 2.4% 14.7 16.1 18.8 17.3 18.918.7
2.5 to 2.9% 3.7 5.7 7.7 6.2 8.39.0
3.0 to 3.4% 0.8 2.0 3.1 1.7 3.14.3
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.4 1.01.8
>4.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.60.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2019 Q1 core inflation forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 Dec. 2019 Dec. 2020 2023
Mean point estimate 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 37 36 28 34 33 30
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 Dec. 2019 Dec. 2020 2023
<-1.0% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.50.6
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.51.3
0.0 to 0.4% 2.9 2.4 3.4 3.0 3.53.8
0.5 to 0.9% 18.3 12.9 10.3 13.9 10.49.6
1.0 to 1.4% 42.9 32.3 24.9 34.6 25.120.5
1.5 to 1.9% 27.0 33.4 34.9 32.8 32.632.3
2.0 to 2.4% 6.3 12.6 15.8 10.5 16.719.2
2.5 to 2.9% 1.2 3.8 5.5 2.7 6.27.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 1.0 2.0 0.9 1.83.3
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.91.4
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.60.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2019 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2023
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 57 53 41 50 46 44
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2023
<-1.0% 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.70.9
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.91.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.82.4
0.0 to 0.4% 3.4 4.7 5.1 6.5 5.85.3
0.5 to 0.9% 11.6 13.5 13.9 12.7 17.111.4
1.0 to 1.4% 30.7 28.7 28.6 27.3 27.925.3
1.5 to 1.9% 33.8 30.1 27.2 30.9 25.428.0
2.0 to 2.4% 13.7 12.4 13.2 11.8 11.114.7
2.5 to 2.9% 3.7 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.96.3
3.0 to 3.4% 1.1 1.7 2.3 1.7 1.82.9
3.5 to 3.9% 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.71.1
>4.0% 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.80.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2019 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2019 2020 2021 Nov. 2019 Nov. 2020 2023
Mean point estimate 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.7 7.5 7.5
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6
Number of replies 52 50 39 44 42 38
Probability distributions 2019 2020 2021 Nov. 2019 Nov. 2020 2023
<5.5% 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.81.6
5.5 to 5.9% 0.5 1.2 1.9 0.9 1.72.9
6.0 to 6.4% 1.5 3.0 4.6 2.3 4.07.2
6.5 to 6.9% 4.9 8.9 13.3 5.9 10.716.3
7.0 to 7.4% 16.6 25.6 26.2 19.7 25.321.6
7.5 to 7.9% 42.0 32.4 25.5 38.3 28.119.0
8.0 to 8.4% 23.2 17.2 15.5 21.9 16.113.0
8.5 to 8.9% 7.7 7.0 6.6 6.8 7.27.9
9.0 to 9.4% 2.2 2.7 2.9 2.3 3.14.6
9.5 to 9.9% 0.8 0.9 1.4 0.8 1.72.8
10.0 to 10.4% 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.71.3
10.5 to 10.9% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.40.7
11.0 to 11.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.4
11.5 to 11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.2
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.2
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.00.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0