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2018 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2018 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 Sep. 2019 Sep. 2020 2023
Mean point estimate 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 52 51 46 45 38 39
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 Sep. 2019 Sep. 2020 2023
<-1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.50.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.21.4
0.0 to 0.4% 0.6 1.4 2.7 2.1 2.93.2
0.5 to 0.9% 2.0 5.1 7.1 6.2 6.97.3
1.0 to 1.4% 10.5 17.4 18.3 19.5 17.516.1
1.5 to 1.9% 70.1 43.3 37.1 41.5 34.432.1
2.0 to 2.4% 12.7 22.8 21.8 20.9 24.121.6
2.5 to 2.9% 1.9 6.9 7.7 6.3 8.010.0
3.0 to 3.4% 0.8 1.8 2.7 1.7 2.74.5
3.5 to 3.9% 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.5 1.12.2
>4.0% 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.51.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q4 core inflation forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 Sep. 2019 Sep. 2020 2023
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 36 35 31 32 27 26
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 Sep. 2019 Sep. 2020 2023
<-1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.30.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.60.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.11.0
0.0 to 0.4% 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.03.5
0.5 to 0.9% 17.2 10.7 8.1 9.1 7.29.1
1.0 to 1.4% 66.6 39.0 25.3 33.9 23.620.7
1.5 to 1.9% 10.3 35.2 40.8 39.9 41.434.8
2.0 to 2.4% 1.8 8.9 15.0 9.9 16.618.4
2.5 to 2.9% 0.7 1.5 4.1 2.0 4.26.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.8 1.9 0.9 1.83.3
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.81.5
>4.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.40.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 2019 Q2 2020 Q2 2023
Mean point estimate 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.6
Standard deviation 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 53 52 46 48 42 39
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 2019 Q2 2020 Q2 2023
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.20.6
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.61.1
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.9 1.32.1
0.0 to 0.4% 0.3 2.2 3.8 2.1 3.14.9
0.5 to 0.9% 1.4 5.6 8.8 5.2 8.010.8
1.0 to 1.4% 4.1 15.4 21.1 14.8 20.122.6
1.5 to 1.9% 31.6 38.1 35.4 36.4 34.427.3
2.0 to 2.4% 53.0 26.6 18.6 28.4 21.417.1
2.5 to 2.9% 7.3 8.1 6.3 8.4 7.18.1
3.0 to 3.4% 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.73.7
3.5 to 3.9% 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.71.3
>4.0% 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.40.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 Aug. 2019 Aug. 2020 2023
Mean point estimate 8.2 7.8 7.5 7.8 7.6 7.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.7
Number of replies 50 49 42 41 36 35
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 Aug. 2019 Aug. 2020 2023
<5.5% 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.71.8
5.5 to 5.9% 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.8 1.73.5
6.0 to 6.4% 0.4 1.5 3.2 1.6 3.38.0
6.5 to 6.9% 1.0 3.6 9.7 3.1 9.914.1
7.0 to 7.4% 2.1 12.7 27.1 13.5 24.419.0
7.5 to 7.9% 10.1 37.9 30.4 35.4 29.120.9
8.0 to 8.4% 64.0 28.6 15.0 29.2 17.415.3
8.5 to 8.9% 16.2 9.8 7.7 10.5 7.88.1
9.0 to 9.4% 3.6 3.1 2.6 3.1 3.14.4
9.5 to 9.9% 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.32.5
10.0 to 10.4% 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.71.1
10.5 to 10.9% 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.40.6
11.0 to 11.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.3
11.5 to 11.9% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.2
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0