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2017 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2017 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 Mar. 2018 Mar. 2019 2021
Mean point estimate 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 54 51 41 43 33 40
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 Mar. 2018 Mar. 2019 2021
<-1.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.20.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.40.6
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.21.7
0.0 to 0.4% 2.0 3.5 4.3 4.5 4.43.6
0.5 to 0.9% 8.4 10.9 9.4 12.1 10.77.8
1.0 to 1.4% 29.5 29.8 21.6 28.4 22.219.2
1.5 to 1.9% 42.3 35.5 35.2 33.6 34.731.8
2.0 to 2.4% 12.2 13.1 17.4 13.2 16.520.7
2.5 to 2.9% 3.1 4.5 6.8 4.5 6.59.0
3.0 to 3.4% 1.0 1.0 2.5 1.3 2.23.3
3.5 to 3.9% 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.71.4
>4.0% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.30.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2017 Q2 core inflation forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 Mar. 2018 Mar. 2019 2021
Mean point estimate 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 28 28 25 24 19 23
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 Mar. 2018 Mar. 2019 2021
<-1.0% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.30.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.50.6
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.01.0
0.0 to 0.4% 7.2 5.1 3.9 6.3 4.72.7
0.5 to 0.9% 35.1 16.9 11.6 21.3 12.98.8
1.0 to 1.4% 41.6 38.4 28.8 37.5 30.821.5
1.5 to 1.9% 11.1 27.3 33.6 24.5 33.035.6
2.0 to 2.4% 2.5 8.3 13.8 6.4 11.418.7
2.5 to 2.9% 0.3 2.0 4.2 1.5 3.56.4
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.2 1.5 0.3 1.22.7
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.61.2
>4.0% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2017 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2021
Mean point estimate 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 54 51 40 44 42 41
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2021
<-1.0% 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.40.5
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.60.9
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.7 1.1 2.1 1.4 1.62.3
0.0 to 0.4% 2.4 4.1 5.4 3.7 4.95.0
0.5 to 0.9% 7.2 11.1 13.2 9.3 11.110.6
1.0 to 1.4% 23.6 24.2 25.9 22.9 26.820.8
1.5 to 1.9% 44.0 35.3 31.4 37.0 32.327.5
2.0 to 2.4% 15.5 15.4 13.3 17.1 14.119.5
2.5 to 2.9% 4.4 5.3 4.8 4.8 5.37.8
3.0 to 3.4% 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.83.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.71.2
>4.0% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.30.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2017 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 Feb. 2018 Feb. 2019 2021
Mean point estimate 9.4 9.1 8.7 9.1 8.8 8.4
Standard deviation 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5
Number of replies 51 48 35 38 30 34
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 Feb. 2018 Feb. 2019 2021
<6.5% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.31.5
6.5 to 6.9% 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.93.5
7.0 to 7.4% 0.3 0.9 2.7 0.6 2.97.3
7.5 to 7.9% 0.7 2.9 7.4 2.0 8.812.3
8.0 to 8.4% 2.6 10.2 17.2 8.6 18.119.6
8.5 to 8.9% 10.6 26.9 26.8 24.7 24.220.5
9.0 to 9.4% 43.1 32.7 24.3 33.7 23.516.9
9.5 to 9.9% 29.3 15.8 12.0 19.0 13.010.3
10.0 to 10.4% 8.7 5.8 4.9 7.4 5.54.7
10.5 to 10.9% 2.7 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.61.8
11.0 to 11.4% 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.60.8
11.5 to 11.9% 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.30.3
12.0 to 12.4% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.20.2
12.5 to 12.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0