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2016 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2016 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 Mar. 2017 Mar. 2018 2020
Mean point estimate 0.3 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 51 49 40 41 35 40
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 Mar. 2017 Mar. 2018 2020
<-1.0% 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.20.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 3.7 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.80.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 17.7 2.9 1.8 4.4 1.81.0
0.0 to 0.4% 43.3 8.4 5.9 15.1 6.23.6
0.5 to 0.9% 24.6 18.8 12.4 22.6 14.89.2
1.0 to 1.4% 6.9 33.1 25.1 27.9 26.619.2
1.5 to 1.9% 2.3 23.4 31.3 17.6 27.933.6
2.0 to 2.4% 0.6 8.5 15.4 7.1 13.819.2
2.5 to 2.9% 0.2 3.0 5.4 2.6 5.48.7
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.9 1.83.3
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.51.2
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2016 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2020
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 52 49 41 44 43 41
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2020
<-1.0% 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.60.5
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.71.0
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.02.1
0.0 to 0.4% 3.5 3.9 4.4 4.1 4.35.2
0.5 to 0.9% 11.5 9.6 10.6 11.6 11.311.6
1.0 to 1.4% 33.0 23.5 23.0 29.2 26.220.2
1.5 to 1.9% 34.5 34.9 32.9 31.5 31.029.2
2.0 to 2.4% 11.7 16.1 16.8 14.0 14.117.7
2.5 to 2.9% 3.0 5.5 6.5 4.7 5.87.6
3.0 to 3.4% 0.9 2.1 2.4 1.7 2.73.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.61.2
>4.0% 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.50.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2016 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 Feb. 2017 Feb. 2018 2020
Mean point estimate 10.1 9.7 9.3 9.9 9.5 8.8
Standard deviation 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7
Number of replies 47 45 33 35 28 33
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 Feb. 2017 Feb. 2018 2020
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.01.0
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.22.2
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.63.8
7.5 to 7.9% 0.2 0.8 2.9 0.2 1.66.9
8.0 to 8.4% 0.7 2.4 5.8 1.0 5.111.2
8.5 to 8.9% 2.0 6.2 13.1 4.3 11.617.5
9.0 to 9.4% 5.0 18.1 24.5 14.8 21.422.2
9.5 to 9.9% 23.2 31.9 24.9 30.9 25.718.4
10.0 to 10.4% 44.1 25.4 15.7 28.4 19.59.5
10.5 to 10.9% 17.6 9.1 6.9 12.9 8.74.5
11.0 to 11.4% 5.0 3.7 3.1 5.0 3.81.7
11.5 to 11.9% 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.8 1.10.6
12.0 to 12.4% 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.30.3
12.5 to 12.9% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.20.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.10.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0