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2014 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2014 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 Dec. 2014 Dec. 2015 2018
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 52 50 40 45 40 44
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 Dec. 2014 Dec. 2015 2018
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.40.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.5 1.30.8
0.0 to 0.4% 7.8 4.8 2.8 6.1 4.52.6
0.5 to 0.9% 26.0 15.2 9.4 16.7 12.97.6
1.0 to 1.4% 39.8 32.3 21.5 33.3 24.417.1
1.5 to 1.9% 19.1 28.6 36.4 26.7 30.229.7
2.0 to 2.4% 4.3 12.5 19.4 11.1 18.424.7
2.5 to 2.9% 1.1 4.0 6.6 3.4 5.511.6
3.0 to 3.4% 0.4 1.1 2.0 0.7 1.74.0
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.41.2
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.10.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2014 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2018
Mean point estimate 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 52 50 39 44 39 42
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2018
<-1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.50.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.2 0.80.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 3.3 2.1 1.9 4.1 2.31.2
0.0 to 0.4% 12.1 6.0 4.9 10.2 5.74.5
0.5 to 0.9% 29.9 13.9 11.3 23.3 13.210.2
1.0 to 1.4% 34.8 28.5 22.9 32.1 26.720.7
1.5 to 1.9% 13.7 29.4 31.2 18.5 29.028.4
2.0 to 2.4% 3.8 11.9 17.3 7.1 13.919.5
2.5 to 2.9% 1.1 4.6 6.5 2.3 5.48.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.1 2.0 2.1 0.3 1.64.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.61.6
>4.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.30.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2014 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2014 2015 2016 Nov. 2014 Nov. 2015 2018
Mean point estimate 12.1 11.7 11.2 12.0 11.5 9.6
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.9
Number of replies 50 48 38 40 36 37
Probability distributions 2014 2015 2016 Nov. 2014 Nov. 2015 2018
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.8
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.9
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.6
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.03.0
8.0 to 8.4% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.26.3
8.5 to 8.9% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.210.3
9.0 to 9.4% 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.1 0.715.3
9.5 to 9.9% 0.4 1.5 4.2 0.2 1.717.1
10.0 to 10.4% 0.9 3.1 7.7 1.3 5.214.4
10.5 to 10.9% 2.4 7.4 12.7 3.9 11.112.5
11.0 to 11.4% 6.9 16.8 25.4 11.6 20.68.9
11.5 to 11.9% 27.0 31.6 24.7 32.0 30.35.5
12.0 to 12.4% 43.0 25.8 14.2 32.4 18.92.4
12.5 to 12.9% 14.7 8.9 5.7 12.8 7.10.7
13.0 to 13.4% 3.3 2.9 1.9 4.2 2.90.2
13.5 to 13.9% 1.2 0.9 0.5 1.1 1.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.20.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0